Burst Bubble in Real Estate? Actually…0.49%

Jeff Evans

Amidst all the doom and gloom about the real estate mortgage in Vancouver comes a story that puts it all into perspective.

I was visiting my father last week, and he couldn’t wait to show me an article in Macleans magazine talking about the major property value crash coming up. I read it quickly, it seemed to be more opinions than anything really substantial. I would agree that it’s hard to see the market appreciating by 5% or more per year in the future as it has until now, because real estate in the City of Vancouver is not very affordable by the average family.

However, many people are currently wishing to buy but are holding off until the ‘great crash” happens. I have heard about this “great crash” in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, and…2012. There have been dips at times in those 5 years, but they have lasted a few months at most and then the market resumes and those “dips” are quickly wiped away.

So, to those who are waiting on the great crash comes the latest housing statistics for Vancouver. The average MLS price in Vancouver in January 2013 was $248,651, and in January 2012 it was $752,380. That is a decrease of less than 0.5% in 1 year.

Now, that does mean its lower (marginally). Also, its different properties on the market now than last year, so these things are not 100% precise (meaning if there are less “high end” properties on the market this year than last year, the average MLS price will be lower).

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver has also reported sales in February to be down by 24.5% from February of last year. However, they are UP by 33% compared to January, and we have seen quieter February’s since 2001. Did the market crash since 2001?

Sales to Active listings are also above 11% for the first time since June 2012. I think that is a significant sign of the tide starting to turn on the quiet market.

Now, if you own a property now, I would agree that now may not be an ideal time to sell unless you are wanting to buy a more expensive property. However, for those delaying buying a home to live in for the longer term…this is a great market to buy in. You have your pick of the litter!

Further, you aren’t going to save money by waiting, like those who waited the past year to save 0.5% on their purchases (in theory).

The spring market is now starting to bloom, and should be in full swing as soon as spring break is over (or maybe after Easter). Mortgage rates are the lowest they have ever been and if you build the savings from low mortgage rates into the price, you are likely still ahead of where you were a year ago. Its almost never a bad time to buy real estate. Contact me today and we can get started with arranging the financing necessary for you to find the perfect place for you and your family.


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